Mexico_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.46 (0.2, 1.05) 0.72 (0.42, 1.27) 0.39 (0.19, 0.78) 0.4 (0.19, 0.83) 0.48 (0.23, 0.99)
9_10 1.34 (0.6, 5.69) 0.75 (0.57, 1.08) 0.35 (0.19, 0.64) 0.5 (0.28, 0.85) 2.34 (0.87, 6.47)
9_11 0.88 (0.69, 1.57) 0.87 (0.68, 1.09) 1.27 (0.83, 1.96) 1.31 (0.85, 2.12) 1 (0.66, 1.5)
9_12 0.7 (0.47, 0.85) 0.7 (0.47, 0.86) 0.63 (0.37, 1.07) 0.75 (0.39, 1.33) 0.17 (0.06, 0.45)
9_13 0.15 (0.05, 0.89) 0.67 (0.33, 1.43) 0.4 (0.19, 0.82) 0.48 (0.23, 1.05) 0.13 (0.05, 0.37)
9_14 0.72 (0.42, 1.51) 1.19 (0.87, 1.64) 0.87 (0.55, 1.34) 0.93 (0.57, 1.53) 0.62 (0.4, 0.96)
9_15 0.71 (0.07, 0.84) 0.72 (0.62, 0.85) 1.18 (0.67, 2.06) 1.46 (0.84, 2.5) 0.08 (0.03, 0.19)
9_16 1.06 (0.17, 1.25) 1.09 (0.82, 1.27) 0.67 (0.4, 1.13) 0.74 (0.44, 1.26) 0.24 (0.12, 0.48)
9_17 0.73 (0.55, 1.87) 0.72 (0.55, 0.93) 1.37 (0.64, 2.93) 1.5 (0.69, 3.23) 0.33 (0.12, 0.84)
9_19 0.72 (0.57, 1.13) 0.7 (0.57, 0.99) 0.75 (0.47, 1.17) 0.65 (0.43, 1) 0.88 (0.6, 1.3)
9_2 1.03 (0.71, 2.11) 0.97 (0.71, 1.29) 1.39 (0.72, 2.59) 1.4 (0.82, 2.5) 0.95 (0.56, 1.55)
9_20 0.95 (0.61, 1.21) 0.95 (0.61, 1.21) 0.95 (0.51, 1.75) 1.16 (0.65, 2.11) 0.72 (0.38, 1.28)
9_21 0.84 (0.69, 1) 0.84 (0.68, 1) 0.88 (0.49, 1.48) 0.53 (0.28, 0.93) 0.67 (0.51, 0.87)
9_22 0.68 (0.41, 1.11) 0.65 (0.45, 0.84) 0.62 (0.37, 1) 0.68 (0.41, 1.12) 0.56 (0.37, 0.84)
9_23 1.09 (0.44, 1.52) 1.13 (0.86, 1.53) 0.61 (0.28, 1.34) 0.84 (0.41, 1.67) 0.96 (0.59, 1.52)
9_24 0.53 (0.31, 0.89) 0.67 (0.42, 0.94) 0.72 (0.42, 1.21) 0.72 (0.41, 1.17) 0.43 (0.28, 0.64)
9_25 0.89 (0.63, 1.84) 0.87 (0.63, 1.23) 1.92 (1, 3.89) 1.45 (0.75, 2.79) 0.84 (0.43, 1.57)
9_26 0.8 (0.54, 2.3) 0.77 (0.51, 1.02) 1.26 (0.67, 2.23) 1.68 (0.95, 2.81) 2.54 (0.58, 8.41)
9_27 1.28 (0.66, 1.52) 1.3 (1.09, 1.53) 0.67 (0.38, 1.15) 0.7 (0.39, 1.2) 0.76 (0.53, 1.11)
9_28 1.14 (0.78, 1.66) 1.13 (0.78, 1.51) 1.37 (0.82, 2.27) 1.46 (0.9, 2.31) 1.51 (0.98, 2.37)
9_29 0.8 (0.39, 1.34) 0.82 (0.53, 1.32) 0.66 (0.3, 1.44) 0.71 (0.33, 1.6) 0.61 (0.26, 1.44)
9_30 0.83 (0.67, 1.01) 0.83 (0.7, 1) 0.63 (0.33, 1.09) 0.58 (0.32, 1.02) 0.54 (0.31, 0.92)
9_31 1.16 (0.58, 2.4) 1.02 (0.52, 1.72) 1.3 (0.67, 2.63) 1.15 (0.56, 2.35) 0.92 (0.59, 1.39)
9_32 1 (0.73, 1.35) 1.07 (0.82, 1.35) 1.07 (0.53, 2.02) 1.14 (0.67, 1.96) 1 (0.73, 1.35)
9_4 0.86 (0.72, 1.03) 0.86 (0.72, 1.03) 1.09 (0.6, 2.05) 0.73 (0.38, 1.39) 0.88 (0.69, 1.12)
9_5 0.84 (0.32, 1.75) 0.79 (0.44, 1.51) 0.74 (0.4, 1.32) 1 (0.54, 1.88) 0.56 (0.27, 1.13)
9_7 0.93 (0.72, 1.15) 0.94 (0.76, 1.15) 0.99 (0.62, 1.62) 0.61 (0.37, 1.05) 0.78 (0.6, 1.01)
9_8 0.85 (0.65, 1.17) 0.98 (0.76, 1.25) 0.93 (0.59, 1.52) 0.31 (0.19, 0.49) 0.79 (0.63, 1)
9_9 1.04 (0.86, 1.18) 1.04 (0.91, 1.18) 0.92 (0.54, 1.56) 0.79 (0.45, 1.38) 0.96 (0.78, 1.17)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
9_1 0.233 0.001 0.766 0.000
9_10 0.421 0.000 0.000 0.579
9_11 0.879 0.000 0.121 0.000
9_12 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_13 0.110 0.000 0.000 0.890
9_14 0.330 0.000 0.000 0.670
9_15 0.934 0.000 0.000 0.066
9_16 0.800 0.000 0.000 0.200
9_17 0.901 0.000 0.099 0.000
9_19 0.786 0.000 0.000 0.214
9_2 0.676 0.149 0.167 0.009
9_20 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_21 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
9_22 0.000 0.000 1.000 0.000
9_23 0.694 0.129 0.000 0.177
9_24 0.495 0.000 0.000 0.505
9_25 0.895 0.000 0.105 0.000
9_26 0.779 0.000 0.221 0.000
9_27 0.876 0.000 0.000 0.124
9_28 0.905 0.095 0.000 0.000
9_29 0.848 0.000 0.000 0.152
9_30 0.976 0.024 0.000 0.000
9_31 0.000 0.174 0.796 0.030
9_32 0.000 0.004 0.000 0.996
9_4 0.976 0.000 0.000 0.024
9_5 0.000 0.000 0.625 0.375
9_7 0.930 0.000 0.000 0.070
9_8 0.380 0.000 0.000 0.620
9_9 0.841 0.000 0.000 0.159

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
9_1 cJ20_J22 0.7561911 ach_noj 0.5389959 Q00_99 0.4115390
9_10 cJ20_J22 0.9810722 ach_noj 0.4614650 P00_99 0.3918417
9_11 cJ20_J22 0.9999983 Q00_99 0.1148878 P00_99 0.1067335
9_12 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.2120766 ach_noj 0.1999286
9_13 P05_07 0.9564574 ach_noj 0.7392100 P00_99 0.6393596
9_14 cJ20_J22 0.9977982 ach_noj 0.6162440 P00_99 0.4868129
9_15 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 1.0000000 S00_T99 0.1096180
9_16 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.1532249 P00_99 0.1146033
9_17 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.2439442 ach_noj 0.1858939
9_19 cJ20_J22 0.9864882 P05_07 0.5772341 P00_99 0.2909908
9_2 Q00_99 0.6313801 ach_noj 0.2972578 P00_99 0.2816673
9_20 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 Q00_99 0.2831985 ach_noj 0.2470916
9_21 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.1785802 ach_noj 0.1659995
9_22 ach_noj 0.4818595 P00_99 0.3485724 Q00_99 0.1741046
9_23 ach_noj 0.2605787 P00_99 0.2571491 P05_07 0.1933955
9_24 cJ20_J22 0.9999131 P00_99 0.4857385 Q00_99 0.4185847
9_25 cJ20_J22 0.9999949 ach_noj 0.4343385 P00_99 0.3656352
9_26 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.2859268 P05_07 0.2801289
9_27 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.3080739 P00_99 0.1369442
9_28 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.9583349 P05_07 0.2337259
9_29 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.9195573 ach_noj 0.3903386
9_30 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.2002758 P05_07 0.1081985
9_31 Q00_99 0.5569927 ach_noj 0.4015298 P00_99 0.3476469
9_32 cJ20_J22 0.3067501 P00_99 0.1745159 ach_noj 0.1486790
9_4 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.4688525 P00_99 0.3126301
9_5 ach_noj 0.8643654 cJ20_J22 0.7510623 P00_99 0.2976141
9_7 cJ20_J22 0.9999981 P00_99 0.4110136 Q00_99 0.3620154
9_8 cJ20_J22 0.9999655 P00_99 0.4988454 ach_noj 0.4766274
9_9 cJ20_J22 1.0000000 A10_B99_nopneumo 0.9302331 Z00_99 0.7299842

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
9_1 0.72 (0.42, 1.27) cJ20_J22 0.76 0.69 (0.38, 1.25) ach_noj 0.54 0.73 (0.42, 1.36) Q00_99 0.41 0.87 (0.47, 1.47)
9_10 0.75 (0.57, 1.08) cJ20_J22 0.98 0.86 (0.67, 1.24) ach_noj 0.46 0.85 (0.67, 1.13) P00_99 0.39 0.85 (0.67, 1.1)
9_11 0.87 (0.68, 1.09) cJ20_J22 1 1.16 (0.79, 1.45) Q00_99 0.11 1.18 (0.79, 1.47) P00_99 0.11 1.17 (0.81, 1.45)
9_12 0.7 (0.47, 0.86) cJ20_J22 1 0.7 (0.38, 1.01) P00_99 0.21 0.72 (0.36, 0.96) ach_noj 0.2 0.79 (0.59, 1.06)
9_13 0.67 (0.33, 1.43) P05_07 0.96 0.8 (0.4, 1.57) ach_noj 0.74 0.77 (0.34, 1.48) P00_99 0.64 1.12 (0.67, 1.63)
9_14 1.19 (0.87, 1.64) cJ20_J22 1 1.1 (0.76, 1.62) ach_noj 0.62 1.09 (0.74, 1.69) P00_99 0.49 1.43 (0.99, 1.94)
9_15 0.72 (0.62, 0.85) cJ20_J22 1 0.91 (0.67, 1.67) E00_99 1 0.9 (0.66, 1.96) S00_T99 0.11 1 (0.69, 2.04)
9_16 1.09 (0.82, 1.27) cJ20_J22 1 0.68 (0.39, 1.24) P05_07 0.15 0.72 (0.44, 1.32) P00_99 0.11 0.73 (0.44, 1.32)
9_17 0.72 (0.55, 0.93) cJ20_J22 1 0.69 (0.5, 1.07) P05_07 0.24 0.68 (0.5, 0.98) ach_noj 0.19 0.67 (0.49, 0.91)
9_19 0.7 (0.57, 0.99) cJ20_J22 0.99 0.79 (0.65, 1.12) P05_07 0.58 0.76 (0.64, 0.96) P00_99 0.29 0.75 (0.63, 0.88)
9_2 0.97 (0.71, 1.29) Q00_99 0.63 1.04 (0.79, 1.35) ach_noj 0.3 1.04 (0.82, 1.33) P00_99 0.28 1.03 (0.81, 1.28)
9_20 0.95 (0.61, 1.21) cJ20_J22 1 0.77 (0.39, 1.46) Q00_99 0.28 0.8 (0.46, 1.48) ach_noj 0.25 0.84 (0.47, 1.56)
9_21 0.84 (0.68, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.8 (0.6, 1.06) P00_99 0.18 0.86 (0.65, 1.1) ach_noj 0.17 0.91 (0.7, 1.14)
9_22 0.65 (0.45, 0.84) ach_noj 0.48 0.69 (0.5, 0.85) P00_99 0.35 0.69 (0.55, 0.83) Q00_99 0.17 0.7 (0.57, 0.83)
9_24 0.67 (0.42, 0.94) cJ20_J22 1 0.85 (0.5, 1.31) P00_99 0.49 0.94 (0.62, 1.32) Q00_99 0.42 0.83 (0.57, 1.24)
9_25 0.87 (0.63, 1.23) cJ20_J22 1 1.05 (0.76, 1.48) ach_noj 0.43 1.05 (0.77, 1.44) P00_99 0.37 1.04 (0.79, 1.39)
9_26 0.77 (0.51, 1.02) cJ20_J22 1 0.78 (0.47, 1.22) K00_99 0.29 0.78 (0.46, 1.33) P05_07 0.28 0.83 (0.57, 1.88)
9_27 1.3 (1.09, 1.53) cJ20_J22 1 1.06 (0.77, 1.35) P05_07 0.31 1.07 (0.79, 1.37) P00_99 0.14 1.12 (0.9, 1.43)
9_28 1.13 (0.78, 1.51) cJ20_J22 1 0.79 (0.59, 1.29) P00_99 0.96 0.71 (0.57, 0.93) P05_07 0.23 0.69 (0.56, 0.89)
9_29 0.82 (0.53, 1.32) cJ20_J22 1 0.87 (0.51, 1.76) P00_99 0.92 0.69 (0.44, 1.29) ach_noj 0.39 0.65 (0.43, 0.93)
9_30 0.83 (0.7, 1) cJ20_J22 1 0.9 (0.6, 1.17) K00_99 0.2 0.88 (0.53, 1.18) P05_07 0.11 0.85 (0.49, 1.13)
9_31 1.02 (0.52, 1.72) Q00_99 0.56 1.03 (0.42, 1.52) ach_noj 0.4 1.12 (0.71, 1.57) P00_99 0.35 1.13 (0.76, 1.53)
9_32 1.07 (0.82, 1.35) cJ20_J22 0.31 1.09 (0.84, 1.37) P00_99 0.17 1.09 (0.86, 1.35) ach_noj 0.15 1.12 (0.88, 1.39)
9_4 0.86 (0.72, 1.03) cJ20_J22 1 0.92 (0.71, 1.15) ach_noj 0.47 0.93 (0.73, 1.16) P00_99 0.31 0.94 (0.74, 1.18)
9_5 0.79 (0.44, 1.51) ach_noj 0.86 1.08 (0.44, 1.68) cJ20_J22 0.75 1.18 (0.51, 1.78) P00_99 0.3 1.36 (0.96, 1.78)
9_7 0.94 (0.76, 1.15) cJ20_J22 1 1.02 (0.79, 1.33) P00_99 0.41 1.03 (0.79, 1.39) Q00_99 0.36 1.02 (0.79, 1.32)
9_8 0.98 (0.76, 1.25) cJ20_J22 1 0.89 (0.64, 1.23) P00_99 0.5 0.98 (0.75, 1.31) ach_noj 0.48 1.1 (0.81, 1.45)
9_9 1.04 (0.91, 1.18) cJ20_J22 1 1.14 (0.94, 1.37) A10_B99_nopneumo 0.93 1.16 (0.96, 1.37) Z00_99 0.73 1.12 (0.89, 1.38)

Plots

9_1

9_10

9_11

9_12

9_13

9_14

9_15

9_16

9_17

9_19

9_2

9_20

9_21

9_22

9_23

NULL

9_24

9_25

9_26

9_27

9_28

9_29

9_30

9_31

9_32

9_4

9_5

9_7

9_8

9_9